News

Monday(May,20 2013)

JOB OPPORTUNITY â€“ INSPECTIONS & MONITORING MANAGER NORTHERN ZONAL OFFICE, KUMASI

JOB OPPORTUNITY – INSPECTIONS & MONITORING MANAGER NORTHERN ZONAL OFFICE, KUMASI

Applications are invited from suitably qualified persons for appointment as

INSPECTIONS & MONITORING MANAGER NORTHERN ZONAL OFFICE (KUMASI)
SCOPE & GENERAL PURPOSE
Support the Zonal Manager in the overall supervision of Downstream Regulatory activities for the 5 Regions of the Northern Zone to ensure conformity with best practice and protocols in the petroleum downstream industry in compliance required by the National Petroleum Act.

RESPONSIBILITIES & ACCOUNTABILITIES

Assist the Zonal Manager in the implementation of inspection and compliance monitoring programmes for retail outlets and other facilities of Petroleum Service Providers (PSPs) in the Ashanti, Brong Ahafo, Northern, Upper East and Upper West Regions.

Assist the Zonal Manager in coordinating the operations of the Petroleum Product Marking Scheme (PPMS) team in the Kumasi zone.

Supervise the inspection of the facilities of all categories of Petroleum Service Providers in the 5 regions of the Northern zone.
Monitor the operations of all categories of PSPs in the zone to ensure compliance with laid down regulations.
Liaise with the Zonal Manager to monitor the work programme of the Petroleum Product Marking Monitoring Team, to ensure optimal coverage of all petroleum product retail outlets, bulk facilities as well as BRVs on the highways in the zone.
Liaise with the Zonal Manager to recommend training and development programmes to strengthen the technical capabilities of all staff in the Zonal Office.

Submit regular reports to the Zonal Manager on inspections and monitoring exercise conducted in the areas assigned.
Perform any other duties that are ancillary to the above or may be assigned by the Zonal Manager.

QUALIFICATIONS & COMPETENT SKILLS

Bsc. degree in Engineering/Sciences or other relevant field.
Minimum of 3 years working experience in relevant industry.
Excellent skills in Microsoft Office Suite (Excel, Word, Power point).

Strong problem solving skills, attention to detail and accuracy.
Ability to work cooperatively and collaboratively with all levels of employees, management, and external agencies to maximize performance, creativity, problem solving, and results.

Value others, communicate effectively, collaborate with others, and demonstrate high integrity. Fair knowledge of the geography of the various regions in the country will be an advantage.
Must be ready to travel the length and breadth of the country (including remote areas) at regular intervals.
High level of Integrity.

MODE OF APPLICATION
Interested and suitably qualified candidates should send their applications with detailed curriculum vitae and copies of relevant certificates to:
The Chief Executive
National Petroleum Authority
House No. 11, 5^th Circular Road
C. P. M. B, Cantonments
Accra

Closing date for submission of application is 31^st May, 2013.

Please mark the envelope “Inspections & Monitoring Manager, NZO”.

*** ONLY SHORTLISTED CANDIDATES WILL BE CONTACTED

Monday(May,20 2013)

JOB OPPORTUNITY â€“ INSPECTIONS & MONITORING MANAGER (2)

JOB OPPORTUNITY – INSPECTIONS & MONITORING MANAGER (2)

Applications are invited from suitably qualified personsfor appointment as

INSPECTIONS & MONITORING MANAGER (2)
SCOPE & GENERAL PURPOSE

Supervise activities of all licensed Petroleum Service Providers (PSPs) through inspections and desktop reviews to ensure compliance with all the rules, regulations etc under the Act.

RESPONSIBILITIES & ACCOUNTABILITIES

Monitor activities of all licensed Petroleum Service Providers (PSPs) through inspections and desktop reviews to ensure compliance with all the rules, regulations etc under the Act.
Supervise inspections of the facilities of PSPs to ensure compliance with laid down rules and regulations.
Review plans and specifications of the facilities of PSPs to ensure compliance with all the rules, regulations etc under the Act.
Supervise onsite inspections of the facilities of licensed petroleum service providers,

Conduct desktop analysis of data compiled from inspection/monitoring exercises as well as data submitted by PSPs, to monitor the compliance of PSPs with the rules and regulations prescribed for them.

Submit reports on inspection/monitoring exercises conducted with appropriate recommendations for implementation.

Maintain a database of all inspected facilities of PSPs in Ghana e.g. retail outlets/LPG filling plants.
Liaise with the Head of Licensing to inspect proposed sites for the construction of facilities of PSPs as a pre-requisite for the grant and issue of construction permits.

Monitor the construction of facilities of PSPs (after Construction permits are issued) to ensure compliance with approved designs, agreed milestones etc.
Perform any other duties that are ancillary to the above or may be assigned by the Head of Inspections and Monitoring.

QUALIFICATIONS & COMPETENT SKILLS

BSc. degree in Engineering/Sciences or other relevant field.
Minimum of 3 years working experience in a relevant industry
Excellent skills in Microsoft Office Suite (Excel, Word, Power point).

Strong problem solving skills, attention to detail and accuracy.
Ability to work cooperatively and collaboratively with all levels of employees, Management, and external agencies to maximize performance, creativity, problem solving, and results.

Value others, communicate effectively, collaborate with others, and demonstrate high integrity. Fair knowledge of the geography of the various regions in the country will be an advantage.
Must be ready to travel the length and breadth of the country (including remote areas) at regular intervals.
High level of Integrity

MODE OF APPLICATION
Interested and suitably qualified candidates should send their applications The Chief Executive
National Petroleum Authority
House No. 11, 5^th Circular Road
C. P. M. B, Cantonments
Accra

Closing date for submission of application is 31^st May, 2013.

Please mark the envelope “Inspections & Monitoring Manager”.

*** ONLY SHORTLISTED CANDIDATES WILL BE CONTACTED

Monday(May,20 2013)

JOB OPPORTUNITY â€“ HUMAN RESOURCE MANAGER

JOB OPPORTUNITY – HUMAN RESOURCE MANAGER

Applications are invited from suitably qualified persons for appointment as:HUMAN RESOURCE MANAGER
SCOPE & GENERAL PURPOSE
Leads and provides functional expertise to the Authority in setting Human Resource strategy and objectives that will provide a high performance culture. Emphasize quality, productivity, goal attainment and the development of a continuously improving superior workforce.

RESPONSIBILITIES & ACCOUNTABILITIES

Ensure the development and review of HR Strategy in line with the corporate Strategy.
Translate strategic human resource plans into recruitment plans by establishing and leading the standard recruiting and hiring practices, policies and procedures necessary to recruit a superior workforce, interns and National Service Personnel.

Design and implement cost-effective Organizational and individual learning and development activities that address the Authority’s learning and development needs.
Implement the Authority’s Performance Management System (including annual appraisals) and collaborate with Director Legal & Administration in the resolution of performance related challenges and counseling of employees.
Ensure the preparation and update of the Authority’s organizational charts and ensure the maintenance of up to date job descriptions for all job positions as required by Management.
Determine and recommend excellent employee relations practices necessary to establish a positive employer-employee relationship and promote a high level of employee morale and motivation while meeting Legal, Social and Authority standards.
Ensure the implementation, review and improvement of the Authority’s HR policies and procedures as well as implement the Authority’s compensation & benefits policies, in line with government/legal regulations and prevailing wage rates aimed at employee satisfaction and retention.
Ensure the effective management of HR Information systems for ease of access and retrieval.

QUALIFICATIONS & COMPETENT SKILLS

1st Degree.
7 years, hands-on, post qualification HR experience, 5 of which must be at Senior HR Management level.
Proven ability in Organizational Development and Change Management.
Knowledge of practices, principles and procedures of human resources management including recruitment, Learning & Development, Performance Management, Employee Relations etc. and knowledge of the labor Act.
Proven people management skills, conflict resolution skills.
Communication and inter-personal skills.
Proven team leadership.
High level of integrity and impartiality.

Mode of Application
Interested and suitably qualified candidates should:

Click here to download the application questionnaire.
Send your completed application questionnaire, application letter and curriculum vitae via e-mail to careers@npa.gov.gh

Closing date for submission of application is 31^st May, 2013.

Please make the subject of your e-mail “ HR Manager – ‘Your Name’”

*ONLY SHORTLISTED CANDIDATES WILL BE CONTACTED

Friday(May,10 2013)

OIL MARKET NEWS (WEEK 19): WEEK ENDED MAY 10, 2013

Major Highlights
• Brent crude price expected to rise in second half of 2013 - Morgan Stanley.
• Brent crude price to average $105.89 a barrel in 2013, EIA predicts.
• Israel launches airstrikes on Syria.
• China's daily crude oil imports rises in April.

Brent crude prices received an early boost at the beginning of the week amid fears of supply disruption after Israeli aircraft attacked a military research center on the outskirts of Damascus in Syria. Concerns of weak global demand were trumped as oil prices drew support from a record close of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index on hopes of a steady U.S. recovery. Prices however slipped back as investors saw the recent surge in prices on concern about tension in the Middle East as an opportunity to sell and book profits. Oil prices further dropped after data from the U.S. Energy Department showed U.S. crude inventories climbed for a second week signaling increasing output. Prices recovered from earlier losses after data from China showed crude imports by the world's second largest oil consumer rose in April, bolstering optimism of a recovery in oil demand. Brent crude is expected to rise in the second half of 2013, Morgan Stanley said in a research note. The bank said the global oil balance looked much tighter this summer with Brent prices likely to trade up to $110-$115 a barrel in the second half of 2013. For its part, the Energy Information Administration forecast in its monthly short-term Energy Outlook forecast that Brent will average $105.89 a barrel in 2013, down $2.07 from last month's prediction. Oil prices may stay under pressure given projections of a well-supplied market and bleak global demand. Average Dated Brent price for the week (published by Platts) rose by $2.36 to $103.48 a barrel from the previous week’s average of $101.12.

Geopolitics
Fears were sparked that the Syrian civil war could turn into a regional conflict after reports suggested Israeli attacks on Syrian targets. Also, Israel's Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, in a visit to China urged China's new leaders among other things to clamp down harder on Iran and its ally Syria. Israel played down the airstrikes reported to have killed dozens of Syrian soldiers, saying the raids were not aimed at influencing its neighbour's civil war but only at stopping Iranian missiles reaching Lebanese Hezbollah militants. According to an Iraqi oil ministry spokesman, rebel militants blew up a pipeline carrying Iraqi crude oil from Iraq's northern city of Kirkuk to Turkey's Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, stopping the flow of oil. The spokesman said he expected repairs to completed soon after saboteurs using bombs attacked the pipeline. Meanwhile South Sudan seized a military base and town after clashing with the army in the east. in an escalation of violence that has already uprooted thousands of people and hampered plans to explore oil. The rebels said they want to end corruption and the one-party system led by the Sudan People's Liberation Movement. In March the army launched an offensive against the rebels in the eastern state of Jonglei, the country's largest state, where the government wants to search for oil with the help of French firm Total.

Inventories

Stockpiles of diesel were expected to increase by about 35 million litres while Petrol stocks were expected to rise by about 29 million litres. LPG stocks were also expected to rise by about 5,000MT by close of the week (May 11, 2013).
U.S. crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 230,000 barrels to about 395.5 million barrels while distillate fuels, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 1.8 million barrels. Gasoline stockpiles decreased by 910,000 barrels to 215.1 million barrels. Meanwhile, stockpiles of middle distillates (including gasoil and kerosene) in Singapore, Asia’s largest oil trading and storage hub, dropped by 303,000 barrels to about 10.1 million barrels, according to Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry. Light distillate inventories (including naphtha and gasoline) declined by about 1.53 million barrels to about 10.2 million barrels, while fuel oil inventories climbed by 1.22 million barrels to about 19.7 million barrels.

Demand and Supply
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its forecast for global oil consumption this year to 89.93 million barrels a day from 90 million estimated last month while cutting its forecast for demand growth for this year to 890,000 barrels a day, a reduction of 70,000 barrels from last month's forecast . Also, the EIA added that demand will climb to 91.14 million barrels a day in 2014, down from the April estimate of 91.33 million barrels. China's daily crude imports in April rose 3.7 percent from a year earlier and rose 3.5 percent from a month earlier as refiners took advantage of lower prices to replenish crude oil stocks. China imported 5.62 million barrels a day of crude oil last month, up from 5.42 million barrels the same month a year ago and 5.43 million barrels in March, Chinese customs data showed. Meanwhile oil production from outside of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will rise 2.1 percent from 2012 to 53.85 million barrels a day in 2013, led by gains in the U.S. and Canada, the EIA said. U.S. production is projected to climb 7.9 percent this year to 12.02 million barrels a day; a total that includes oil, natural gas plant liquids, bio fuels and refinery processing gains. Saudi Arabia raised crude output in April to the highest in five months while making little change in the total amount it supplied to foreign and local markets, a person with knowledge of the country's production said. The world's largest crude exporter pumped 9.32 million barrels a day in April, about 180,000 barrels more than in March. In Africa, South Sudan's first oil export shipment since January 2012 reached Sudan, state news agency SUNA said. The African neighbours agreed in March to resume cross-border oil flows, ending a row over pipeline fees that prompted landlocked South Sudan to shut down its entre production of 350,000 barrels a day.

References
• www.bloomberg.com
• www.reuters.com
• www.bbc.co.uk

Friday(May,03 2013)

OIL MARKET NEWS (WEEK 18): WEEK ENDED MAY 3, 2013

Major Highlights
• Ample U.S. crude oil stocks pressure prices downwards.
• European Central Bank reduces interest rates to a record low.
• Obama cautions against rash judgement on the use of chemical weapons in Syria.
• Supply from OPEC set to average 30.46 million barrels a day.

Brent crude prices began the week higher than the previous week’s close and subsequently experienced marginal slips before rising on the last day of trading. Prices rose as investors remained cautiously optimistic that further global stimulus measures would boost oil demand. But prices were pressured downwards by ample supplies and by fresh signals of weak global economic growth which raised concerns about the outlook for demand. China’s factory-sector growth eased in April, suggesting the euro zone recession and sluggish U.S. demand may be weighing on China’s recovery. China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index showed manufacturing expanded at a weaker pace last month. The gauge fell to 50.6 in April, down from a March reading of 50.9, according to the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing. Also weighing on oil prices was a U.S. government report showing that crude oil stocks in the United States hit a record high of 395.3 million barrels. Despite bearish developments on the oil demand and supply front, Brent crude prices made gains after better-than-expected job growth in the United States raised the prospect of stronger demand in the world’s top oil consumer. U.S. employment increased in April, pushing the unemployment rate to a four-year low of 7.5 percent, easing concerns of a sharp slowdown in the economy. Additionally, prices posted sharp gains after the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates to record lows, spurring investor appetite for oil. The ECB cut its main interest rate to a record low of 0.50 percent. Average Dated Brent price for the week (published by Platts) rose by $0.50 to $101.12 a barrel from the previous week’s average of $100.62.

Geopolitics
Investors’ attention was focused mainly on Syria as U.S. President Barack Obama cautioned against a rush to judgment on whether Syria used chemical weapons against its own people in a sign he is going to take a deliberate approach to a problem that could lead to U.S. military action. At a White House news conference, Obam said the Defense Department already has prepared options that might be available, which he declined to describe, in response to what would clearly be an “escalation” and a “threat” to the security of the international community, the United States and its allies. The government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad however denies using chemical weapons in the two-year old civil war in which more than 70,000 people have been killed. Also, media reports had it that Syrian Prime Minister Wael al-Halaqi survived a bomb explosion that killed at least six people as his convoy travelled through Damascus.

Inventories

Stockpiles of diesel were expected to increase by about 47 million litres while LPG stocks were also expected to rise by about 6,000MT by close of the week (May 4, 2013).
U.S. crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 6.7 million barrels to about 395.3 million barrels while distillate fuels, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 500,000 barrels. Gasoline stockpiles decreased by 1.8 million barrels to 216.0 million barrels. Meanwhile, stockpiles of middle distillates (including gasoil and kerosene) in Singapore, Asia’s largest oil trading and storage hub, rebounded by 1.3 million barrels to about 10.4 million barrels, according to Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry. Light distillate inventories (including naphtha and gasoline) rose by about 133,000 barrels to about 11.7 million barrels, while fuel oil inventories climbed by 2.0 million barrels to about 16.5 million barrels.

Demand and Supply
Supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is set to average 30.46 million barrels a day, up from 30.18 million barrels a day in March, a survey of shipping data and sources at oil firms, OPEC and consultants found. The survey indicated that supply has risen due to fewer output disruptions and resumed production from Libya and Iraq rather than any strategy to pump more oil. Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister in a speech intimated that he welcomes the new U.S. energy supplies as he expects the country to remain an importer of crude from the Middle East. The United States is producing oil at the highest level in 20 years thanks to hydraulic fracturing and other advanced drilling techniques.”The U.S. is and will remain a major energy consumer” the Oil Minister said. Meanwhile, Saudi Prince Turki Al Faisal said in a speech at Harvard University that Saudi Arabia plans to raise production capacity to 15 million barrels a day by 2020 from 12.5 million barrels a day currently, reviving talk of a higher internal target. He added that the new capacity will allow the kingdom to be able to export as much as 10 million barrels of crude a day. However, Saudi Oil Minister countered, saying the kingdom has no plans to dramatically expand its oil production capacity to 15 million barrels a day, dispelling suggestions put forth by a member of his country’s royal family. The Oil Minister asserted that Saudi Arabia will be “lucky to go past” its current oil production of about 9 million barrels a day by 2020 as new petroleum production from other countries comes into the global market.

References
• www.bloomberg.com
• www.reuters.com
• www.bbc.co.uk

Tuesday(April,30 2013)

OIL MARKET NEWS (WEEK 17): WEEK ENDED APRIL 26, 2013

Major Highlights
• Goldman Sachs reduces its 2013 forecast for Brent crude price.
• European Central Bank to lower interest rates.
• Syria unhappy over lifting of oil embargo.
• Ghana expects its crude oil production to more than double by 2021.

Brent crude prices rose to a one-week high above $100 a barrel on speculation that last week's drop was excessive. Prices however slipped after manufacturing data from China pointed to a lukewarm recovery in the second quarter, denting the outlook for fuel demand in the second largest oil consumer, while Germany, the Euro zone's largest economy, saw business activity decline for the first time in five months. Goldman Sachs cut its near-term outlook for Brent crude oil to $100 a barrel from $110 and lowered its 2013 forecast to $105 from $110. China's demand for oil slowed down significantly from January to March, and the bank recently cut its outlook for the country's economic growth in the second quarter. Oil prices rose on a surprisingly big drop in weekly U.S. gasoline stockpiles and on hopes that demand will pick up ahead of the summer driving season in the world's top oil consumer. Prices climbed further on speculation that European Central Bank (ECB) policy makers will cut the ECB's key interest rate to a record low at their May 2 meeting. Banks including UBS AG and Royal Bank of Scotland Group forecast that the ECB will reduce borrowing costs to 0.5 percent. Average Dated Brent price for the week (published by Platts) rose by $2.46 to $100.62 a barrel from the previous week’s average of $98.16.

Geopolitics
Syria expressed dismay over the easing of an embargo on its oil that will enable the European Union to buy crude oil from the government’s opposition. In a letter to the United Nations Security Council, Syria said no party can take any measure that would prejudice the sovereign right of states over their natural resources for the benefit of the opposition which represents foreign interests. In a related development, Syria hopes to clinch more financial aid from its allies Russia and Iran, but still have enough foreign reserves to pursue its war on rebels trying to oust President Bashar al-Assad, the central bank governor said. Meanwhile, an estimated 3,000 South Sudanese rebels surrendered and accepted an amnesty, ending a long-standing insurgency in the oil producing north of the country. Also, the African Union brought together for the first time for peace talks Sudan and insurgents fighting government troops in two states bordering South Sudan, in a conflict that has affected almost a million people. Sudan previously refused to meet the rebel group and accused South Sudan of backing the rebels, a charge South Sudan strongly denied. Finally, the United Nations nuclear watchdog confirmed that it will hold a new meeting with Iran on May 15, aimed at enabling its inspectors to resume a stalled investigation into suspected nuclear bomb research by the Islamic state.

Inventories

Stockpiles of diesel were expected to increase by about 73 million litres while LPG stocks were also expected to rise by about 8,500MT by close of the week (April 27, 2013).
U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 947,000 barrels to about 388.59 million barrels while distillate fuels, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 97,000 barrels. Gasoline stockpiles dropped by 3.93 million barrels to 217.8 million barrels, the biggest drop in a year. Meanwhile, stockpiles of middle distillates (including gasoil and kerosene) in Singapore, Asia’s largest oil trading and storage hub, fell by 1.34 million barrels to about 9.1 million barrels, according to Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry. Light distillate inventories (including naphtha and gasoline) rose by about 946,000 barrels to about 11.6 million barrels, while fuel oil inventories declined by 30,000 barrels to about 16.5 million barrels.

Demand and Supply
Global oil demand will grow by 1 million barrels a day in 2013 and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will need to maintain supplies at current levels to avoid a surplus this year, according to Pierre Barbe, the head of trading and shipping at Total SA, in a speech at the Abu Dhabi conference. Global oil markets are in balance and receiving ample crude, Suhail Mohammed Al Mazrouei, the Energy Minister of the United Arab Emirates, said. OPEC, which plans to meet May 31 to review its output target, is ensuring that supplies are sufficient, the Energy Minister added. While U.S. crude imports rose by 131,000 barrels a day to 7.52 million barrels a day last week, U.S. crude production rose 118,000 barrels a day to 7.33 million barrels a day, the most since April 1992, data from the Energy Information Administration showed. U.S. output has surged as the combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing has unlocked supplies trapped in shale formations in the central part of the country. OPEC heavyweight, Saudi Arabia, is expected to keep oil output steady throughout the second quarter as more high pace demand in Asia, its biggest oil export market, has yet to materialize. With Europe mired in debt and the United States using more of its own oil, Asia is the primary target for producers in the Gulf Cooperation Council. Iraq may exit OPEC if the group does not let the nation's output rise, State Minister Ali al-Dabbagh said. OPEC must make room for 5 million barrels a day of Iraqi oil exports in the future, he added, without giving a time frame. Meanwhile, Ghana expects oil production to more than double to 250,000 barrels a day by 2021 as output rises at the Jubilee field and other sites start pumping, according to the Chief Executive Officer of the Ghana National Petroleum Corporation.

References
• www.bloomberg.com
• www.reuters.com
• www.bbc.co.uk

Friday(April,19 2013)

OIL MARKET NEWS (WEEK 16): WEEK ENDED APRIL 19, 2013

Major Highlights
• Brent crude price falls below $100.
• IMF trims its global growth forecast for this year a fourth consecutive time.
• EU governments plan to lift oil embargo on Syria.
• OPEC to cut crude production if prices trade below $100 on a sustained basis.

The oil market was generally bearish with Brent crude prices trading below $100 a barrel throughout the week. Brent crude has fallen nearly 10 percent since the start of April, a decline that accelerated especially after a cut in oil demand forecasts by global energy agencies and weak economic data from the United States and China, the world's two largest oil consumers. Crude prices began the week rising slightly on speculation that earlier heavy losses were exaggerated. However, prices dipped as traders speculated that German economy, which has shown resilience to the euro zone's debt crisis, could weaken. Adding to the already bearish sentiment was news that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its global growth forecast and urged European policy makers to use "aggressive" monetary policy as a second year of contraction leaves the euro area's recovery lagging behind the rest of the world. The global economy will expand 3.3 percent this year, less than the 3.5 percent forecast in January, after a 3.2 percent growth in 2012, the IMF said, cutting its prediction for this year a fourth consecutive time. Prices further dropped on concern that slowing economic growth will curb fuel demand, while supplies from the North Sea recover after oilfield maintenance. The decline followed a shift in the structure of North Sea prices starting early April signaling that supplies were beginning to outpace demand. The head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Maria van der Hoeven, said the oil price decline was proof that the market was adequately supplied, adding that it would help the global economy. Meanwhile, BNP Paribas SA trimmed its 2013 estimate for Brent crude to $108 a barrel from $115 while advising investors to bet on a rebound in the second half of the year. Oil prices could be supported late in the second quarter once refineries are back from maintenance and as geopolitical risks still remain, analysts from the bank added. Average Dated Brent price for the week (published by Platts) fell by $5.02 to $98.16 a barrel from the previous week’s average of $103.18.

Geopolitics
Investors' concerns were stoked as eleven civilians were killed when a Syrian warplane bombed a Kurdish village in the oil-producing province of Hasaka in north-eastern Syria. A statement by the Kurdish National Council said the attack was a serious escalation by the regime following a series of raids on rural areas where fighting between rebel brigades and President Bashar al-Assad's military intensified. In a related development, the European Union (EU) planned to ease an embargo on Syrian oil to allow for purchases of crude from the opposition in an effort to tilt the balance of the conflict against President Assad. The move aims to give the insurgents much needed cash for infrastructure repairs, to build up local governance and possibly to fund purchases of arms. The lifting of oil sanctions may bolster the credibility of the Syrian National Coalition - an umbrella organisation of the opposition - among Syrians opposing Assad, an EU diplomat said.

Inventories

Stockpiles of diesel were expected to increase by about 35 million litres while petrol stocks were expected to rise by about 40 million litres and to last for 7 weeks. LPG stocks were also expected to rise by about 9,000MT.
U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 1.23 million barrels to about 387.6 million barrels after reaching their highest level since July 1990 in the prior week. Gasoline stockpiles dropped by 633,000 barrels to 221.7 million barrels. Meanwhile, stockpiles of middle distillates (including gasoil and kerosene) in Singapore, Asia’s largest oil trading and storage hub, rose by 146,000 barrels to about 10.4 million barrels, according to Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry. Light distillate inventories (including naphtha and gasoline) rose by about 426,000 barrels to about 10.6 million barrels, while fuel oil inventories declined by 1.5 million barrels to about 16.5 million barrels.

Demand and Supply
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), European refiners will idle about 1.3 million barrels of daily capacity this month, curbing demand for crude. The reduction is equivalent to 11 percent of the oil the region will process in April. However, daily exports of North Sea Brent, Forties, Oseberg and Ekofisk crudes, which make up the Dated Brent benchmark, will increase by 1.5 percent in May to 893,548 barrels a day, loading programmes obtained by Bloomberg news showed. Meanwhile, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will probably cut output if Brent prices keep trading below $100 a barrel because that is less than what many member countries need in order to balance their budgets, an inter-governmental Arab energy lender said. "OPEC will definitely need to cut production to shore up prices as they cannot produce at prices close to their break-even level" an official from the bank indicated. Nevertheless, Saudi Arabia's Petroleum Ministry expects a bigger gain in oil demand this year than forecast by groups such as OPEC and IEA. It estimates world demand will increase by about 1 million barrels a day in 2013 and exceed 90 million barrels "for the first time in history". Reports by the tanker tracker Oil Movements revealed that OPEC will reduce crude shipments this month as weakness in the global economy constrains demand and refiners finish maintenance. OPEC will curb exports by about 220,000 barrels a day to 23.54 million barrels a day in the four weeks to May 4, according to the report. The figures exclude Angola and Ecuador.

References
• www.bloomberg.com
• www.reuters.com
• www.bbc.co.uk

Friday(April,12 2013)

OIL MARKET NEWS (WEEK 15): WEEK ENDED APRIL 12, 2013

Major Highlights

Crude oil price falls to the lowest level in 9 months.
TOR resumes production.
OPEC, EIA and IEA all trim their forecast for global oil demand.
Citigroup projects Brent crude to average $104 a barrel .

Crude oil prices traded range-bound throughout the week before falling to its lowest level in 9 months. The week began with prices trading around the previous week’s close of $106 a barrel. However weak fundamentals and several bearish factors came in to push prices down heavily on Friday to as low as approximately $101 a barrel; a price which top oil producer Saudi Arabia continues to say is a reasonable price for both producers and consumers. Demand for petroleum products continues to decline as the Euro Zone continues to fight its debt crisis. This contributed to the decisions made by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) to cut down their forecasts for global oil demand for the year 2013. This news further led to a fall in oil prices on the market. News that oil stockpiles in the world’s top oil consumer (the U.S.) had risen to a 22-year high also added to the fall in crude oil prices. Other bullish factors such as the geopolitical tensions in Iran and North Korea failed to lift prices up. Expectations that a strengthening recovery in China’s economy will push prices up were also dashed. Ibrahim al-Muhanna, an adviser to Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, said at a meeting of the Organisation of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries that crude oil will trade in Europe at about $100 a barrel this year as demand on the continent continues to decline. He added that the increasing output from the shale in the U.S. will help stabilise the market, and the cost of producing oil from fracking, $60 to $90 a barrel, will set a crude floor price of about $70. However Citigroup Inc raised its 2013 forecast for Brent because of higher-than-estimated prices in the first quarter. It said Brent will average $104 a barrel this year, up from a previous prediction of $99. Average Dated Brent price for the week (published by Platts) fell by $3.42 to $103.18 a barrel from the previous week’s average of $106.60. Many analysts believe the rapid slide in Brent prices from almost $119 to $103 in the space of two months is bound to concern policymakers in Saudi Arabia and other OPEC member countries.

Geopolitics

Diplomatic worries over Korea and the Middle East remained of major concern to investors on the oil market. Tension in the Korean peninsula escalated after North Korea moved one long-range missile in readiness for a possible launch and South Korea said it has raised its surveillance. The U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry warned North Korea it would be a “huge mistake” to test launch a medium-range missile and said the U.S. would never accept the reclusive country as a nuclear power.
Iran, which is engaged in dispute with Western nations over its nuclear program, said it had begun operations at two uranium mines and a milling plant after weekend talks with major powers to resolve the dispute ended in stalemate. Meanwhile South Korea could become the second major buyer to face a halt in crude oil imports from Iran, as insurers broaden Western sanctions to refineries.
Elsewhere, foreign ministers from the G8 group of countries who met in London failed to patch up deep divisions over Syria or come up with a concrete plan on North Korea. Meanwhile Sudan’s president Umar al-Bashir visited South Sudan for the first time since the latter split from the former, raising hopes that the two countries will implement agreements which were agreed earlier to allow oil exports to resume.

Inventories

TOR resumed production with the rates of the RFCC and TOPPING Units at 1,800 MTSPD (85%) and 3,264 MTSPD (54.4%) respectively. Stockpiles of diesel were expected to rise by about 76 million litres (by close of the week on April 13) and to last for 6.2 weeks, while that of petrol were expected to rise by about 40 million litres and to last for 7 weeks. LPG stocks were also expected to rise by about 8,500MT.
U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 250,000 barrels to about 388.9 million barrels to reach the third-highest level on record. Gasoline stockpiles rose by 1.7 million barrels to 222.4 million while distillate stockpiles fell by 165,000, significantly less that the anticipated drop of 1.3 million barrels.

Demand and Supply
China’s daily crude oil imports in March fell by 2.1 percent to the lowest level in six months according to data from the country’s Customs, as some refineries started maintenance programmes amid high fuel stocks. China imported 5.43 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in March compared to 5.5 million bpd the same month a year ago and February 2013’s 5.42 million bpd. The country’s fuel demand has however been recovering slowly since late last year amid signs of the economy regaining some strength, after the lowest expansion in 13 years in 2012. Meanwhile data published by the EIA showed that crude oil production in the U.S. rose by 30,000 barrels to 7.18 million bpd, the highest level since July 1992.
OPEC, the EIA and the IEA have all trimmed their forecasts for global oil demand in 2013. OPEC now expects world oil demand to rise by 800,000 bpd this year instead of 1.2 million bpd as previously forecasted. That is, worldwide oil consumption will rise to 89.66 million barrels a day in 2013 versus 88.87 million in 2012. It cited weaker-than-expected oil use in developed economies, particularly Europe and Japan. OPEC’s daily crude oil production fell in March by 100,000 bpd to 30.19 million bpd as Nigeria, Iran and Kuwait pumped less. Iranian crude oil production in March was at 2.68 million bpd compared with 2.72 million in February. OPEC slightly increased the forecast demand for its own crude in 2013 by 40,000 bpd to 29.75 million bpd, due to lower expectation of supplies from outside its group.
The EIA also cut its 2013 world oil demand growth forecast by 50,000 bpd, although it still sees a stronger rate of growth in oil demand than OPEC of 960,000 bpd. According to the IEA, global consumption will rise by 795,000 bpd to average 90.58 million a day this year. That’s down 45,000 barrels a day from its March forecast. Citigroup Inc’s head of energy strategy Seth Kleinman said at the Bloomberg Oil Forum in London on April 11 that “demand is going to continue to surprise to the downside, supply will continue to surprise to the upside”. According to tanker tracker Oil Movements, OPEC will reduce its crude shipments this month as demand from refiners dips during seasonal maintenance. It says crude on board tankers will average 468.93 million barrels, down 1.7 percent from the previous period.

References

www.bloomberg.com
www.reuters.com

Friday(April,05 2013)

OIL MARKET NEWS (WEEK 14): WEEK ENDED APRIL 5, 2013

Major Highlights

Oil market bearish as U.S. crude inventories swell to their highest since 1990.
Investors eye mounting tension in the Korean Peninsula.
China to overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest crude importer by 2014.

Investor worries were raised as the oil market was bearish for the most part with prices going below $104 a barrel by close of the week. Brent crude prices fell as swelling inventories in the United States and recent weak data fuelled worries about demand from the world’s top oil consumer. Investors suggest the build in U.S. inventories to their highest since 1990 reflects a weak economy which is still struggling to recover indicating a muddy outlook for oil demand. Also, news that U.S. factory activity grew at its slowest rate in three months in March coupled with disappointing private sector hiring and higher jobless claims pressured prices downwards. Again, crude prices retreated amid easing concern that tension between western governments and Iran over the Persian Gulf country’s nuclear programme will result in a wider conflict that would disrupt oil exports from the Middle East. “At some point, OPEC will have to do something if prices fall below $100 a barrel, OPEC would either have to cut output, or at least, not increase production as they have been planning” said Carsten Fritsch, senior oil analyst at Germany’s Commerzbank. Meanwhile Secretary General of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) intimated that prices were at a comfortable level for both producers and consumers. According to Barclays Plc, Brent will average $112 a barrel this year, reducing its forecast from $125 a barrel, which had been the highest of all forecasts compiled by Bloomberg. Brent may recover from the recent sell-off as global inventories will remain low and economic growth picks up in the second half of the year, Goldman Sachs said, while maintaining its second quarter projection at $110 a barrel. Average Dated Brent price for the week (published by Platts) fell by $0.53 to $106.60 a barrel from the previous week’s average of $107.13.

Geopolitics
Investors were keeping an eye on escalating tension on the Korean peninsula and a standoff between Iran and the West over Tehran's disputed nuclear program. News that Pentagon was sending a missile defense system to Guam in the coming weeks and the U.S. Defense Secretary, Chuck Hagel, citing a "real and clear" danger from North Korea, added to investor caution. North Korea, said it had "ratified" a merciless attack against the United States, potentially involving a "diversified nuclear strike". Additionally, concerns were heightened about North Korean risks when it decided to ban entry to workers from the South to their joint industrial complex. Meanwhile, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili sounded a defiant note ahead of a new round of talks with world powers in Kazakhstan, saying they had to recognize Iran's right to enrich uranium to see any breakthrough. Finally, over two days of talks in Almaty, Iran was asked to give up work on its most sensitive nuclear activities in return for an easing of sanctions. The talks indeed ended without agreement, with the EU saying their positions "remain far apart". But the BBC's Lyse Doucet said there had been "no agreement of any kind, not even an agreement to meet again".

Inventories

Stockpiles of diesel were expected to increase by 67.0 mLts and to last for 5.1 weeks. Petrol stocks were also expected to increase by 53.0 mLts to augment the stock to last for 6.4 weeks.
Meanwhile, 7000MT of LPG was expected for delivery by close of the week (April 8-9, 2013). U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in Strategic Petroleum Reserve) rose 2.71 million barrels from the previous week to about 388.6 million barrels, the highest level since 1990. Gasoline inventories decreased by 572,000 barrels to 220.7 million barrels while distillate fuel (including heating oil and gasoil) inventories rebounded 748,000 barrels to about 16.3 million barrels. Meanwhile stockpiles of middle distillates (including gasoil and kerosene) in Singapore, Asia’s largest oil trading and storage hub, inched up by 32,000 barrels to about 10.1 million barrels, according to Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry. Light distillate inventories (including naphtha and gasoline) rebounded by 728,000 barrels to about 11.4 million barrels, while fuel oil inventories declined by 748,000 barrels to about 16.3 million barrels.

Demand and Supply
China is on course to overtake the U.S. as the world’s top crude importer by 2014, as the Asian country’s growing refining capacity boosts demand and America’s fracking boom cuts the need for foreign oil, according to a report from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). China’s imports rose 1.3 percent in December to 5.57 million barrels a day. The country may meet 60 per cent of its oil needs with foreign crude this year. Imports to China may surpass 6 million barrels a day by the end of this year, while shipments to the U.S. may drop below 6 million barrels a day in 2014, OPEC said. “Demand for crude will remain strong from Asian buyers as the U.S. produces more of its own oil”, Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said. Also, reports indicated that China is on track to become Russia’s biggest crude oil export market within five years after OAO Rosneft, the world’s biggest publicly traded oil producer, agreed to more than double shipments in exchange for loans. Rosneft said it will deliver at least 37 million metric tons of oil a year, or about 743,000 barrels a day, to China National Petroleum Corp. Germany was the biggest market for Russian crude in 2011, buying about 700,000 barrels a day, while China was fourth with less than 400,000 barrels a day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Agency. Meanwhile, Iran's April crude exports will rebound to above 1 million barrels per day (bpd), industry sources said, after falling in March to the lowest. Iraq’s oil production, which averaged 3.15 million barrels a day in the first quarter, will probably rise this year. Iraq is seeking a long-term accord to boost oil exports to China as OPEC’s second-biggest producer increases output from fields operated by companies such as Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA), Oil Minister Abdul Kareem al-Luaibi said.

References

www.bloomberg.com
www.reuters.com
www.bbc.co.uk

Friday(March,29 2013)

OIL MARKET NEWS (WEEK 13): WEEK ENDED MARCH 29, 2013 Major Highlights

Major Highlights
• E.U. leaders agree to a last-minute bailout deal with Cyprus.
• Head of Syria's main opposition group resigns.
• Iraq expects its crude oil production to reach 4.5 million barrels a day in 2014.

Brent crude prices swung between gains and losses but remained below $109 a barrel last week. Prices rose after Cyprus agreed to a painful bailout at the eleventh-hour with the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund to shut down its second largest bank in return for 10 billion euros. The agreed deal removed the immediate risk of a collapse of its banking sector and the ejection of the Mediterranean island from the euro zone. Brent crude prices however slipped on concerns that the Cyprus bailout could set a new precedent in restructuring the euro zone banking sector, again raising worries about the European economy and its oil demand. "The loss of confidence in the European banking system stemming from the Cypriot crisis will not only weigh on the banks but also on the economy of the region" a Paris-based trader said. Prices were also kept in check after Saudi Arabia's Oil Minister, Ali al-Niami, said an oil price around $100 a barrel was reasonable for consumers and producers, highlighting the top crude exporter's preferred range. Prices rallied on hopes of a revival in demand growth in the world's biggest oil consumer, the United States, as data showed a surprise fall in product inventories. Further supporting Brent crude prices was news that South Korea had postponed an oil tax decision by three months; a move that could boost demand for North Sea crudes, according to sources with knowledge of the matter. Under a free trade agreement with the European Union, South Korean refiners could import North Sea crudes tax-free. The refiners would then process the crude into products for export and claim a tax rebate. Average Dated Brent price for the week (published by Platts) fell by $0.10 to $107.13 a barrel from the previous week’s average of $107.23.

Geopolitics
The head of Syria's main opposition group Ahmed Moaz al-Khatib resigned last week, weakening the moderate wing of the two-year revolt against President Bashar al-Assad's rule and complicating Western efforts to back the rebels. The opposition head said world powers had failed to help rebels, and he could only improve the situation by working outside of the coalition. However, a later report claimed that his resignation was refused and he was expected to continue in his post. In a related development, Russia vowed to oppose an expected push by the Syrian opposition to take over Syria's seat at the United Nations and predicted that any Syrian National Coalition bid at the world body would fail. Elsewhere, Sudan's Vice President invited rebel groups to help prepare a new constitution. This demonstrated a sign of Khartoum's relaxed stance toward the insurgents since the signing border security deals with South Sudan in March.

Inventories

Stockpiles of diesel were expected to increase by 99.0 mLts while 7,000MT of LPG was expected to add to existing stocks by close of the week (March 30, 2013). U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in Strategic Petroleum Reserve) fell by 1.3 million barrels from the previous week to about 382.7 million barrels. Gasoline inventories decreased by 1.5 million barrels to about 222.8 million barrels, while distillate fuel (including heating oil and gasoil) inventories declined by 672,000 barrels to about 119.8 million barrels. Meanwhile stockpiles of middle distillates (including gasoil and kerosene) in Singapore, Asia’s largest oil trading and storage hub, inched up by 860,000 barrels to about 10.1 million barrels, according to Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry. Light distillate inventories (including naphtha and gasoline) declined by 430,000 barrels to about 10.7 million barrels, while fuel oil inventories declined by 1.4 million barrels to about 17.1 million barrels.

Demand and Supply
U.S. crude oil imports averaged about 8.2 million barrels a day last week, up 841,000 barrels a day from the previous week. However, over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged 7.6 million barrels a day; about 1.2 million barrels a day below the same four-week period last year, bolstering the view that surging U.S. shale production is decreasing imports. Iraq expects its crude oil production to reach 4.5 million barrels a day in 2014, compared with 2.96 million barrels a day of actual production in February. Meanwhile, a government-commissioned study of Iraq's energy needs showed that the optimum plateau production capacity for the country is just over 9 million barrels a day by 2020. Under this scenario, some 8 million barrels would be available for export. South Sudan said it expected to resume crude oil output by March 31 according to Oil Minister Stephen Dhieu Dau. While analysts indicate that it may take as long as a year to reach pre-shutdown production levels because of possible damage to equipment, they also reckon full production will only resume once operating companies have tackled difficulties including cleaning and testing a major pipeline used to transport stickier, heavier crude, as well as repairing any damage to infrastructure incurred during clashes in April last year along the border. Oil in South Sudan is pumped mainly by China National Petroleum Corporation, Malaysia's Petroliam Nasional Bhd and India's Oil & Natural Gas Corporation.

References
• www.bloomberg.com
• www.reuters.com
• www.bbc.co.uk

Friday(March,22 2013)

OIL MARKET NEWS (WEEK 12): WEEK ENDED MARCH 22, 2013

Major Highlights
• Uncertainty about Cyprus's finances revives concern about the stability of the euro zone
• Iran and Israel issue threats to each other over Iran's nuclear programme during Obama's visit in the region.
• U.S. crude oil production set to surpass amount of crude the country import - EIA

The oil market was generally bearish throughout the week with Brent crude prices continuing to experience a downward trend. Crude oil prices dropped as Cyprus struggled to raise sufficient money to qualify for an European bailout to avoid a banking collapse or a risk of exiting the euro zone. Investor concerns were renewed about the stability of the euro zone, the downside risks to global economic growth and the outlook for petroleum demand in Europe. The European Union gave Cyprus up to the beginning of this week to raise the money failing which the European Central Bank threatens to pull funding lines to the country. Cypriot Finance Minister headed to Moscow to secure a loan agreement with Russia to avert a financial meltdown. Prices however got a lift as China manufacturing data pointed to a pick-up in March as well as a better fuel demand outlook in the world's second largest oil user, offsetting lingering worries about a contagion in the euro zone from Cyprus's woes. Additionally, prices rose on hopes that the United States would continue with its stimulus programme while geopolitical tensions between Iran and the West limited price losses. Oil prices declined as German manufacturing output unexpectedly contracted in March, signalling the euro zone's debt crisis is slowing growth in the region's biggest economy. Prices were further weakened amid a recovery in North Sea oil production and the imminent return of South Sudan oil exports. Average Dated Brent price for the week (published by Platts) fell by $1.11 to $107.23 a barrel from the previous week’s average of $108.34.

Geopolitics
Iranian Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said his country will destroy Tel Aviv and Haifa if Israel makes "any mistake," after President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met to discuss the Islamic Republic's nuclear programme. Israel has the right to "defend itself by itself", Netanyahu said, the latest warning that his country may launch a military strike against Iran. For his part, Obama intimated that the U.S. will do whatever necessary to prevent Iran from gaining a nuclear weapon. In addition, Russia said Iran and six global powers made headway in expert-level talks last week to ease the 10-year-long standoff over Tehran's nuclear ambitions, but the risk of backsliding towards confrontation remained. Higher level talks are scheduled to resume in Kazakhstan early next month in an attempt to avert another Middle East war that balloon oil prices and wreak havoc on the global economy. Elsewhere, the UN is to investigate the possible use of chemical weapons in an attack in Syria, Secretary General Ban Ki-moon announced. The investigation will focus on an incident in the Aleppo province where both rebels and government accuse each other of using chemical weapons. Only a handful of countries of which Syria is part have failed to sign the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) which internationally bans their use.

Inventories

Stockpiles of diesel were expected to increase by 70.0 mLts while 8,000MT of LPG was expected to add to existing stocks by close of the week (March 23, 2013). U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in Strategic Petroleum Reserve) fell by 1.3 million barrels from the previous week to about 382.7 million barrels. Gasoline inventories decreased by 1.5 million barrels to about 222.8 million barrels, while distillate fuel (including heating oil and gasoil) inventories declined by 672,000 barrels to about 119.8 million barrels. Meanwhile stockpiles of middle distillates (including gasoil and kerosene) in Singapore, Asia’s largest oil trading and storage hub, dropped by 795,000 barrels to about 9.2 million barrels, according to Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry. Light distillate inventories (including naphtha and gasoline) were up by 1.3 million barrels to about 11.1 million barrels, while fuel oil inventories declined by 145,000 barrels to about 18.5 million barrels.

Demand and Supply
China's crude oil imports from Iran rebounded last month from a 10-month low hit in January, official data showed, in line with an International Energy Agency (IEA) report that said new sanctions appeared to have had little impact on shipments. The rebound also came after an official from China's biggest refiner, Sinopec Corporation, said his refinery will process more Iranian crude this year than last. China, Iran's top crude oil customer, bought about 521,300 barrels per day (bpd), up 68 percent from about 309,906 bpd in January, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. Meanwhile U.S. crude oil production is set to surpass the amount of crude the country imports for the first time since 1995 later this year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said. U.S. oil output has surged from less than 6 million bpd in early 2011 to above 7 million bpd currently and is expected to reach 8 million bpd by the end of 2014. That would be the highest level since 1988, the EIA said. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will trim crude shipments through early April while refiners in Asia perform seasonal maintenance work, according to tanker tracker Oil Movements. The producer group will reduce shipments by 40,000 barrels a day to 23.72 million bpd in the four weeks to April 6. The figures exclude Angola and Ecuador.

References
• www.bloomberg.com
• www.reuters.com
• www.bbc.co.uk
• BP global daily newsletter

Friday(March,15 2013)

OIL MARKET NEWS (WEEK 11): WEEK ENDED MARCH 15, 2013

Major Highlights

The International Energy Agency curbs its global oil demand growth for 2013.
Sudan and South Sudan agree to resume oil production.
EU rejects Franco-British proposal to lift arms embargo on Syria.
OPEC and U.S. boost crude oil output.

Brent crude prices began the week lower than the previous week's close as prices continue to trend lower. Brent crude prices fell pressured by demand growth concerns as latest data from China pointed to an uneven economic recovery in the world's second largest oil consumer. Also, a trimmed demand forecast from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and a stronger dollar put additional pressure on prices. The IEA curbed its outlook for demand growth by 20,000 barrels a day to 820,000 barrels a day while the dollar held an upper hand against other major currencies. A stronger dollar can weigh on dollar-denominated commodities such as oil. Oil prices got a boost after President Barack Obama said military force remained an option if sanctions failed to thwart Iran's nuclear ambitions. The ongoing geopolitical tensions over Iran's controversial nuclear programme have also supported crude oil prices, helping to keep prices above $100 through the most of 2012 and this year. Prices retreated as crude inventories in the U.S. rose more than expected last week, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The likelihood of resumption in exports from South Sudan also weighed on Brent crude prices. The price of crude oil will remain at more than $100 a barrel for the rest of 2013, Angolan Petroleum Minister Jose Maria Botelho de Vasconcelos said. Brent crude has averaged $113.26 this year, compared with $111.66 in 2012. Oil pricing agency Platts announced changes to the way it assesses the Brent oil market, in a bid to bolster the credibility of the benchmark used to set oil prices globally. Platts said it plans to apply quality premiums for Oseberg and Ekofisk crude from June 2013 - two of the four crudes deliverable into Brent-Forties-Oseberg-Ekofisk (BFOE) forward contracts that help establish the price of dated Brent, used to price oil around the world. Platts also said the quality premiums will reflect 50 percent of net price differences and will draw on two months of price assessment data instead of using one month's data as initially proposed. Average Dated Brent price for the week (published by Platts) fell by $1.69 to $108.34 a barrel from the previous week’s average of $110.03.

Geopolitics
Geopolitical worries were renewed in the Middle East as Syrian rebels broke through government lines to ease a siege of their positions in the strategic central city of Homs, despite coming under fierce aerial bombardment opposition campaigners said. Although Syria is not key to the oil market, investors have long worried the unrest may spread to other major oil exporters in the region. Meanwhile, the European Union (EU) governments dismissed a proposal from France and the UK to lift an arms embargo on Syria to allow weapons supplies to Syrian rebels. The EU opined that the lifting of the embargo could spark an arms race and worsen regional instability. Elsewhere, South Sudan said it would be ready to restart oil production within three weeks after finalising a deal to resolve bitter border and security disputes with its neighbour and long-time foe Sudan. Hours after the announcement, Sudan said it had begun recalling its troops out of a buffer-zone along the countries' shared boundary, easing tensions and echoing South Sudan's announcement of a troop withdrawal. Both countries have however agreed to order companies to resume southern oil shipments through a Red Sea export terminal within two weeks.

Inventories

Stockpiles of diesel were expected to increase by 14.0 mLts while 8,000 MT of LPG was expected to be delivered onto the market by close of the week (March 16, 2013) .
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in Strategic Petroleum Reserve) rose by 2.6 million barrels from the previous week to about 384 million barrels. Gasoline inventories decreased by 3.6 million barrels to about 224.3 million barrels, while distillate fuel (including heating oil and gasoil) inventories rose by 83,000 barrels to about 120.5 million barrels. Meanwhile stockpiles of middle distillates (including gasoil and kerosene) in Singapore, Asia’s largest oil trading and storage hub, rebounded by 602,000 barrels to about 10 million barrels, according to Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry. Light distillate inventories (including naphtha and gasoline) were down by about 238,000 barrels to about 9.8 million barrels, while fuel oil inventories declined by 1.4 million barrels to about 18.6 million barrels.

Demand and Supply
The International Energy Agency (IEA) curbed its estimate for global oil consumption for a second month. The Paris-based IEA reduced its 2013 prediction by 60,000 barrels to 90.6 million barrels a day, citing "elusive" economic growth. Oil demand this year is still expected to rise by 820,000 barrels a day, the agency said. The IEA again reduced its estimate for demand for crude oil from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in 2013 by 100,000 barrels a day to 29.7 million barrels per day, the lowest since 2009, reflecting rising competition and a weak global economy. The U.S. government also sees global oil demand rising by 1.01 million barrels a day in 2013 and non-OPEC production growth reaching 1.17 million barrels a day. U.S. oil production last week rose to the highest level since July 1992, buoyed by increased drilling in oilfields including North Dakota's Bakken shale and the Eagle Ford in Texas. Output climbed 66,000 barrels a day to 7.159 million in the seven days ended March 8, extending a gain of more than 1.3 million barrels a day last year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Domestic crude output will average 7.31 million barrels a day in 2013 and 7.88 million in 2014, the EIA said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook. Soaring U.S. oil production should be enough to allow customers withstand most potential supply shocks, the Paris-based IEA said. OPEC boosted its crude production to the highest in three months in February led by increased output from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. The producer group pumped 30.31 million barrels a day last month, up from 30.24 million barrels in January and the most since November, according to the group's monthly oil market report. Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude exporter, increased output to 9.12 million barrels a day in February from 9.08 million the previous month. Iraqi output rose to 3.14 million barrels a day in February from 2.97 million barrels in January. This was the first time in two months that the nation's output exceeded 3 million barrels a day, according to the IEA. Iran's crude production grew by 70,000 barrels a day to 2.72 million barrels last month even as the U.S. implemented new sanctions against the Persian Gulf country, with the increased output reportedly going to China and India, the IEA said.

References

www.bloomberg.com
www.reuters.com
www.bbc.co.uk

Friday(March,08 2013)

OIL MARKET NEWS (WEEK 10): WEEK ENDED MARCH 8, 2013

Major Highlights
• Brent crude prices down for the fourth consecutive week.
• Exiled Syrian Opposition figure visits Syria.
• Sudan and South Sudan resume stalled talks to enable the resumption of oil flow.
• Death of Hugo Chavez likely to have an impact on Venezuelan oil supply, analysts say.

Brent crude prices stayed below $111 a barrel on concerns that a fiscal crisis in the United States and worrying data from China may weigh on oil demand in the top two consumers. Automatic spending cuts were triggered in U.S. last week as lawmakers failed to agree on a resolution to prevent them, while China's manufacturing growth eased in February to a four-month low. Prices gained slightly as supply disruptions in the North Sea offset concerns about the U.S. and Chinese economies. The 80,000 barrel per day UK Brent pipeline was shut on March 2 for the second time in seven weeks after a leak was found at the Cormorant Alpha platform in the North Sea. Additional support for oil came from China's pledge to keep growing a 7.5 percent, countering worries over the expansion of the world's second biggest economy and North Sea supply disruptions. Oil gains were capped by medium-term concerns such as rising U.S. crude supply coupled with news from the U.S. Energy Department of a higher-than-expected rise in crude inventories in the top oil consumer. Brent crude oil further declined, erasing the week's gains as flows resumed from the North Sea pipeline after having been shut for a five-day period. Brent was down for the fourth consecutive week , its longest weekly losing streak since May 2012. The next target for Brent will be $107.79-$108.16, said Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao. Average Dated Brent price for the week (published by Platts) fell by $2.50 to $110.03 a barrel from the previous week’s average of $112.53.

Geopolitics
Investors continued to keep an eye on events in the Middle East as exiled opposition figure of the Syrian National Coalition (SNC), Moaz Alkhatib, visited Syria last week for the first time since fleeing last year on reports from rebels that President Bashar al-Assad's forces embarked on counter-offensives in various parts of the country. Opposition campaigners said the counter-offensive appeared to be part of a new strategy by Assad focusing on regaining three rebel-held regions that pose a threat to his grip on Dasmascus and supply lines from coastal regions, where a large proportion of his minority Alawite sect live. Additionally, the U.N. nuclear watchdog raised pressure on Iran to finally address suspicions that it has sought to design an atomic bomb, calling for swift inspector access to a military base where relevant explosives tests are believed to have been carried out. Some diplomats and analysts said Iran is using the meetings with the IAEA merely for leverage in its negotiations with world powers which, unlike the IAEA, have the power to ease sanctions that they have recently tightened on the major oil producer. Meanwhile, Sudan and South Sudan resumed stalled talks last week aimed at setting up a demilitarised zone along their porous border in a fresh bid to settle a long-standing dispute of oil and land. Both countries agreed to order their forces out of a demilitarised border zone within a week, possibly paving the way to the resumption of oil exports from the south. the landlocked South shut down its oil production of 350,000 barrels a day a year ago during a row over how much it should pay the north to pipe its crude to a coastal terminal for export.

Inventories

Stockpiles of petrol and diesel were expected to increase by 9.0 mLts and 20.0 mLts respectively. Also, an additional 31.0 mLts of ATK was expected to be delivered onto the market by close of the week (March 9, 2013) boosting its stock position to about 15.9 weeks-to-last. Some quantity of ATK was expected to be downgraded into kerosene to meet the shortfall in kerosene stocks. 10,000 MT of LPG was also expected for delivery to increase its stock situation. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in Strategic Petroleum Reserve) rose by 3.8 million barrels from the previous week to about 381.3 million barrels. Gasoline inventories decreased by 616,000 barrels to about 227.9 million barrels, while distillate fuel (including heating oil and gasoil) inventories dropped by 3.8 million barrels to about 120.4 million barrels. Meanwhile stockpiles of middle distillates (including gasoil and kerosene) in Singapore, Asia’s largest oil trading and storage hub, dropped by 910,000 barrels to about 9.4 million barrels, according to Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry. Light distillate inventories (including naphtha and gasoline) fell by about 641,000 barrels to about 10.0 million barrels, while fuel oil inventories declined by 1.8 million barrels to about 20.0 million barrels.

Demand and Supply
China's crude oil imports slumped in February, down nearly 9 percent from February 2012, customs data showed. This was as a result of high crude oil prices and a demand lull during the Lunar New Year break which caused refiners to cut down imports. The Organization of Petroleum of Exporting Countries (OPEC) will raise shipments this month in anticipation of a rebound in demand as refiners in the U.S. and Europe finish maintenance, according to Oil Movements. The group that supplies about 40 percent of the world's oil will bolster crude shipments by 420,000 barrels a day to 23.83 million barrels a day in the four weeks to March 23. Most of the increase is expected from OPEC's largest member, Saudi Arabia. U.S. domestic output rose to as much as 7.12 million barrels a day in February, the most since 1992, while output slipped to 7.09 million barrels a day last week, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported. Crude output from the 12-member OPEC rose to 30.32 million barrels a day in February from 30.21 million in January, the first climb since October, a Reuters survey showed. Saudi Arabia's crude oil output this year may average 400,000 barrels a day less than in 2012 as the kingdom curbs supply to help meet OPEC's production target, according to a National Commercial Bank (NCB) forecast. The world's largest crude exporter may pump 9.5 million barrels a day on average in 2013, Saudi Arabia's biggest lender by assets said in an e-mailed note. The NCB reduced its estimate for Saudi Production this year from its previous forecast in November 2012 of 10.1 million barrels. Venezuela produced 2.86 million barrels of oil a day last month, behind Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait in the 12-member OPEC, according to a Bloomberg survey. It exported about 1million barrels a day to the U.S. in December, figures from the EIA showed. showed. "The death of Hugo Chavez may have an impact on the market, although that isn't apparent at the moment," said Michael McCarthy, a chief market strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney."The potential for disruption in Venezuelan politics could see disruptions to development and supply."

References
• www.bloomberg.com
• www.reuters.com
• www.bbc.co.uk

Friday(March,01 2013)

OIL MARKET NEWS (WEEK 9): WEEK ENDED MARCH 1, 2013

Major Highlights
• Crude oil prices continue to experience downward pressure.
• The six world powers do not suspend oil or financial sanctions during talks with Iran.
• Surging ATK stocks on the Ghanaian market.
• OPEC crude oil output increases in February.

Brent crude prices continued to trend downwards throughout the week, hitting its third consecutive weekly loss. Oil prices were pressured on news that Saudi Arabia was preparing to increase its second quarter output. Brent crude prices fell to a one-month low under $113 a barrel on worries about an inconclusive Italian election that revived investor concerns about instability in the euro zone and threatened the outlook for fuel demand. The vote result stoked fears that the country's politicians would be unable to form a government strong enough to carry out effective reforms. Losses in crude were limited by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's defense of the central bank's bond buying stimulus programme in last week's Congressional testimony. Bernanke's testimony was seen as supporting the economic recovery which is tied to oil demand. Further pressure on prices came from the political gridlock between the White House and Republicans who have struggled to reach a deal to avert $85 billion in cuts across the federal government agencies known as "sequestration". The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said it would shave at least 0.5 percentage points off its 2013 U.S. economic growth forecast of 2 percent if the cuts are fully implemented. Oil prices continued to be supported by supply concerns due to tensions in the Middle East, and investors kept an eye on talks over Iran's nuclear programme. Reports showing that crude oil exports from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) rose in February, making the first monthly increase since October 2012, kept a lid on prices. Crude oil prices are forecast to fall this year due to weak demand in many industrialized countries and improving global supply, according to analysts in a Reuters poll. Average Dated Brent price for the week (published by Platts) fell by $3.27 to $112.53 a barrel from the previous week’s average of $115.80.

Geopolitics
The Syrian opposition heightened the rhetoric against Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shia group allied to Bashar al-Assad's embattled regime. The group accused Hezbollah of recently launching a ground incursion into Syria and of having previously sent fighters over the border to help the regime to crush the opposition. Also, U.S. Secretary of State, John Kerry, said at a gathering of the friends of Syria in Rome, the U.S. will provide direct support to rebel forces in the form of medical and food supplies. He also promised an additional $60 million in aid to the opposition to help it deliver basic governance and other services in rebel-controlled areas. Meanwhile, geopolitical stakes were high as the six world powers - United States, France, Russia,
Britain, Germany and China did not offer to suspend oil or financial sanctions during the two-day talks with Iran on its nuclear programme in Kazakhstan, a senior U.S. administration official said. While Western officials said Tehran must start taking concrete steps to ease mounting concerns about its atomic activity, Iran's foreign minister said he sees a chance to improve ties with the United States, despite a long running standoff with major powers over his country's nuclear programme. Iran and World powers agreed to meet again in Instabul in March and to resume political discussions in Kazakhstan in April.

Inventories

Stockpiles of petrol and diesel were expected to increase by 49.0 mLts and 23 mLts respectively. Next, ATK of about 22,000 MT was expected to be delivered onto the market by close of the week (March 2, 2013) boosting its stock position to about 8 weeks-to-last, while 10,000 MT of LPG was also expected for delivery to boost its stock situation.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in Strategic Petroleum Reserve) rose by 1.1 million barrels from the previous week to about 377.5 million barrels. Gasoline inventories decreased by 1.9 million barrels to about 228.4 million barrels, while distillate fuel (including heating oil and gasoil) inventories increased by 557,000 barrels to about 124.2 million barrels. Meanwhile stockpiles of middle distillates (including gasoil and kerosene) in Singapore, Asia’s largest oil trading and storage hub, dropped by 334,000 barrels to about 10.3 million barrels, according to Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry. Light distillate inventories (including naphtha and gasoline) fell by about 100,000 barrels to about 10.6 million barrels, while fuel oil inventories climbed by 1.2 million barrels to about 21.8 million barrels.

Demand and Supply
U.S. oil consumption posted an unexpected drop in December, pulling total demand for 2012 to the lowest annual level since 1996, the U.S. government said last week. The decline is the latest chapter in a year's long stretch of weak oil demand in the U.S., reflecting a weak economy and high unemployment, growing vehicle efficiency and high fuel prices that have cut into usage. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its monthly report that oil demand in the world's top oil consumer dipped to 18.13 million barrels per day (bpd) in December. U.S. oil demand for 2012 was at 18.56 million bpd, down 2 percent compared with 2011, with petroleum use falling in every month in 2012 except May. On the supply side, U.S. crude production slipped 22,000 bpd to 7.1 million bpd last week while crude output in the 12- member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) rose for the first time in six months as rising Libyan production outpaced a cut by Saudi Arabia, which has implemented a programme aimed at curbing excess supply and supporting prices, a Bloomberg survey showed. Crude output from OPEC increased by 97,000 bpd to an average of 30.7 million (bpd) in February, while Libyan daily production increased by 130,000 bpd to 1.24 million bpd. Saudi Arabia, OPEC's biggest oil producer, pumped 9 million bpd in February, down 100,000 bpd from January.

References
• www.bloomberg.com
• www.reuters.com
• www.bbc.co.uk

Friday(February,22 2013)

OIL MARKET NEWS (WEEK 8): WEEK ENDED FEBRUARY 22, 2013

Major Highlights
• Crude oil prices to fall in the range of $111 and $113 over next four weeks.
• A credible military threat needed to stop Iran's atomic programme, Israeli Prime Minister says.
• Ghanaian market continues to face low stockpiles of ATK and Kerosene.
• Saudi Arabia to increase oil supply in second quarter 2013.

Brent crude prices, after experiencing a major rally in the first six weeks of this year, lost most of the gains throughout the week eventually settling at around $113 a barrel on the last day of trading. Worries over the
euro zone were deepened as political uncertainty in Italy raised questions about oil demand. Italy is the euro zone's third biggest economy and investors feared results of the general elections could threaten its economic reform, further darkening the outlook for a region already in a deeper-than-forecast recession. Additionally, expectations that economic growth in France will miss the government's 2013 target as well as news that the euro zone's purchasing managers' indexes (PMIs) pointed to a first-quarter contraction of up to 0.3 percent, weighed on crude prices. Again, prices dipped as the prospect of more Saudi Arabian supply outweighed optimism that an improving global economy would bolster demand. Saudi Arabia expects to raise its production in the second quarter of this year to meet higher demand and nurture global economic recovery. The news is bearish because Saudi Arabia is raising crude output during a lower demand season even though demand is picking up, said a commodity sales manager at Newedge in Japan. Prices edged up slightly as data showed German business morale increased in February at its fastest pace in more than two years, pointing to a rebound in Europe's largest economy after a dismal end in 2012. Brent crude oil is expected to fall into a range of $111.97 and $113.67 a barrel over the next four weeks, similar to a downtrend between March and June last year, Reuters market analyst Wang Tao said. The possibility that the U.S. Federal Reserve might curb its economic stimulus measures earlier than previously expected further put downward pressure on prices. U.S. economic data last week suggested the world's largest oil consumer hit a bump on its road to recovery with industrial output off to a weak start in 2013. Weak economic data in the U.S. and Europe has stirred concerns that the rally that began at the start of the year may be over done. Average Dated Brent price for the week (published by Platts) fell by $2.35 to $115.80 a barrel from the previous week’s average of $118.15.

Geopolitics
Investors continued to monitor events in the Middle East as tensions over Iran's disputed nuclear programme continued to stoke supply concerns in the key oil producing region. Major world powers have offered to ease sanctions on Tehran's trade in gold and precious metals in exchange for the closure of a uranium enrichment plant, but a spokesperson for Iran's foreign ministry turned it down. Talks between Iran and major world powers remain deadlocked as investors look ahead to another meeting on February 26 for signs of progress. Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, said at a conference in Jerusalem that a "credible military threat" is needed to stop Iran's atomic programme, the risk it poses to the flow of Middle East oil and what he called a global wave of Iran-led terrorism. Also, Sunni Muslim Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, is engaged in a fierce rivalry with Shi'ite power Iran and is seen in Western countries as the most likely Middle Eastern state to seek an atomic weapon if Iran did the same. Analysts have also said an Iranian nuclear weapon capability might persuade Egypt and Turkey to seek a bomb too. Elsewhere, reports have it that European governments might ease economic sanctions on rebel-held areas of Syria, including a ban on importing oil, in a effort to tilt the balance of the conflict against President Bashar al-Assad.
Such a move would mark a significant step up in European support for the rebels, locked in a 23-month conflict that has killed around 70,000 people, and could allow them to build up local governance and obtain humanitarian aid.

Inventories
Stockpiles of diesel were expected to increase by 46.0 mLts boosting its stock situation to 3.1 weeks-to-last. Also, ATK of about 15,000 MT was expected to be delivered onto the market to boost its low stock level by close of the week (February 23, 2013) which unfortunately was not delivered.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in Strategic Petroleum Reserve) rose by 4.1 million barrels from the previous week to about 376.4 million barrels. Gasoline inventories decreased by 2.9 million barrels to about 230.3 million barrels, while distillate fuel (including heating oil and gasoil) inventories declined by 2.3 million barrels to about 123.6 million barrels. Meanwhile stockpiles of middle distillates (including gasoil and kerosene) in Singapore, Asia’s largest oil trading and storage hub, rose by about 1.2 million barrels to about 10.6 million barrels, according to Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry. Light distillate inventories (including naphtha and gasoline) increased by about 1.2 million barrels to about 10.7 million barrels, while fuel oil inventories climbed by 1.8 million barrels to about 20.6 million barrels.

Demand and Supply
U.S. crude production rose to 7.12 million barrels a day in the week ended February 15, the most since August 1992, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) report showed. Output has gained as the combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing has unlocked supplies trapped in shale formations in states including North Dakota, Texas and Oklahoma. Bank of America Corporation expects 3.9 million barrels a day in supply growth from 2012 to 2017 to come from non-OPEC producers with 80 percent of it from the U.S. Saudi Arabia, the world's top exporter of crude oil, expects to raise output in the second quarter to satisfy higher demand from China and drive economic recovery elsewhere, but the exact rise in volume was unclear ,oil industry sources said. Iraq's crude oil exports rose in January for the first monthly gain since October 2012, according to the marketing unit of the OPEC member state's Oil Ministry. Iraqi shipments increased last month to 73.1 million barrels or an average of 2.35 million barrels a day, compared with 72.8 million barrels or 2.34 million barrels a day in December 2012. OPEC will increase shipments into next month as refiners in the U.S. and Europe prepare to start operating after seasonal maintenance, according to tanker tracker Oil Movements. The group will export 23.6 million barrels a day in the four weeks to March 9, up 90,000 barrels from the previous period. The figures exclude Angola and Ecuador.

References
• www.bloomberg.com
• www.reuters.com
• www.bbc.co.uk

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